Justice Alito's Leaked Memorandum and its Unintended Consequences

The "leak" several days ago of Justice Samuel Alito, Jr.'s draft of a Supreme Court (SCOTUS) decision in the Dobbs case has created a nationwide uproar with reactions from both sides of the abortion debate. Whether the leak came from an abortion supporter in an effort to weaken or shame one or more of the Justices concurring with Alito's memorandum or an abortion opponent trying to solidify the apparent majority supporting the opinion is unknown at this time. What is known is that the Alito decision, if approved by SCOTUS, will have the effect of overturning Roe v. Wade as the governing law of the land regarding abortion. SCOTUS' overturning of precedents is extremely rare but not unknown and will have the effect of turning abortion regulation to the 50 states. A number of states, primarily in the south and midwest, have already announced that they intend to ban or severely restrict access to abortion. Indications are that an attack on the use of abortifacient drugs is next. These drugs induce abortion medically and are fully licensed by the Food and Drug Administration and require a physician's prescription. States banning FDA approved medications is unheard off and unprecedented. Where this may lead to is impossible to imagine.

Reference is made to two earlier posts on this blog, namely American Thermidor and Skating on Thin Ice. These two posts warned the Democrats to stop their class warfare and the Republicans to stop their abortion wars. It also predicted GOP wins in the November mid-term elections. Currently, in the author's opinion, everything is in turmoil right now and it is impossible to make reliable predictions about the results. Current polls indicate that over 60% of the American electorate favors legal abortion. How this will translate into votes on Election Day remains to be seen. The Dobbs decision may induce enough voters to produce a surprise Democratic upset resulting in Democrat majorities in both houses of congress. This would have the effect of resuscitating the moribund Biden administration from lame duck to activist status.

An activist Biden administration would be expected to enact economic, social and political legislation which would be an anathema to most Americans. In other words, the Alito abortion decision will lead to increased taxes, increased budget deficits, inflation, foreign policy adventures, and radical unwanted social change in the United States.

Of course, all of this is speculative. Unfortunately, an administration which failed in all of its endeavors stands to get a second wind through no effort or achievements of its own. Roe v. Wade should stand as a matter of personal liberty. Overturning it will cause America to pay a very high and unpredictable price.

Garry S. Sklar

Las Vegas, NV

May 6, 2022