On the Irrelevancy of Lame Ducks

Office holders nearing the completion of their tenure in office generally have a diminution of both their power and authority as the public awaits the incumbent’s successor. The departing official is generally called a “lame duck” and during the remaining interval little to nothing is ordinarily accomplished.

All elected officials ultimately face a lame duck period at the end of their term of office. Term limits prevent some office holders from running for re-election; others retire, run for another office, are defeated or are appointed to another position, thus ending their incumbency. The most significant officeholders who are lame ducks are executives rather than legislators due to the differing function of the involved positions. In a post on this blog written on Sep. 30, 2020 (When Does the President's Authority End?), it was noted that the president’s term office expires at noon on Jan. 20 of the year following the general election. There is thus an interval of over two months between the election and the inauguration of the President. The departing incumbent, the lame duck, is not powerless during that interval. He/she continues to have all the power and privileges that the office conferred on day 1 up to and including the final day in office. What does history tell us about departing presidential incumbents or lame ducks?

The presidency and its incumbents have become significant in international affairs as communications have increased their speed and simultaneously the United States became more involved in world affairs. If any single event can be cited, it would probably be the Spanish-American War (1898). The result of this war led to America having colonial interests not only in the Caribbean but in Asia as well. William McKinley was assassinated and succeeded by his Vice President Theodore Roosevelt. TR used his position as a “bully pulpit” as he sent the American fleet on a world tour and negotiated the Treaty of Portsmouth to end the Russo-Japanese War which won for him the Nobel Peace Prize. The stunning upset election of 1912 catapulted the first term Governor of New Jersey, Woodrow Wilson, into the White House. World War I, the “Great War” broke out in 1914. Despite Wilson’s election campaign motto of 1916, “he kept us out of the war”, the US entered the war in response to German unrestricted submarine warfare. The Versailles Conference (1919), produced a flawed peace treaty. Among its “accomplishments” was the creation of a Wilson inspired international organization, the League of Nations. Senate reservations about the League Covenant led a sick Wilson to campaign all across the country to promote the League. Wilson suffered a stroke; the seriousness of his disability was hidden from the country as Mrs. Wilson effectively ran the government. Wilson’s lame duck period was consequential both domestically and internationally and lasted more than a year and a half. With the election of Warren Harding in 1920, the US returned to “normalcy”. Harding died in office and was succeeded by Vice President Calvin Coolidge. America was prosperous, the stock market boomed and there was peace and prosperity at home. Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover won the 1928 election. The stock market crashed seven months after his inauguration and the Great Depression began. Economic suffering led to the rise of dictatorships in much of Europe and by the mid 1930s war clouds were rising.

The effects of the Great Depression led to a realization that the four month interval between the election in November and the inauguration in March was too long and the newly elected officeholder needed to assume power sooner. The twentieth amendment to the Constitution was introduced on March 2,1932 and ratified by three quarters of the states on January 23, 1933. President-elect Franklin D. Roosevelt was inaugurated on March 4, 1933, the last president to be inaugurated on that date. After his re-election in November 1936, he was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 1937. All elected presidents have assumed office on January 20 since that time. FDR was the only president elected more that twice. He was elected for the fourth time in November 1944. His death less than three months after his inauguration shocked the nation as well as his successor, Vice President Harry S. Truman who had little time to prepare for the assumption of power. There was accordingly no lame duck period. Truman served until January 20,1953 when he was succeeded by the architect of victory in World War II, General Dwight D. Eisenhower. Faced with deteriorating relations with the Communist government of Fidel Castro in Cuba, Eisenhower took the unusual step of breaking diplomatic relations with that country on January 3, 1961, seventeen days before his successor, John F. Kennedy was to be inaugurated. Despite Eisenhower’s lame duck status he felt the necessity to exercise his full presidential powers which would last until January 20. Eisenhower’s lame duck action endured until July 2015 when diplomatic relations between the two countries was re-established.

JFK was assassinated on November 22,1963 and his Vice President assumed the presidency immediately. Lyndon B. Johnson had an energetic domestic program but his presidency was destroyed by the Vietnam War. Widespread rioting made it impossible for LBJ to appear in pubic without accompanying demonstrations. Johnson announced that he would not run for reelection, after he barely won the New Hampshire Democrat primary, on March 31, 1968. He thus faced an extraordinarily long lame duck period. He tried desperately to negotiate an end to the war. His lame duck status can best be demonstrated by his failure, despite having a massive Democrat majority in the Senate, to push through his nomination of Associate Justice Abe Fortas to the Chief Justiceship of the United States. LBJ left office sick and defeated.

Richard Nixon assumed office on January 20, 1969. He was reelected but forced to resign due to the Watergate Scandal. Gerald Ford, the only appointed Vice President in American history, assumed office with no time for preparation. Ford served the remainder of Nixon’s term and was defeated by Jimmy Carter. Carter was a weak and ineffective president who early in his tenure was faced with domestic and international crises which weakened him. His administration was particularly paralyzed by the Iran hostage crisis which only ended on his successor Ronald Reagan’s inauguration. Reagan’s presidency was on the whole successful and he was seamlessly succeeded by Vice President George H.W. Bush. At this time, the Soviet Union was collapsing and it appeared that a Pax American was on the horizon. Bush led a victorious coalition to restore Kuwaiti independence, but a weak economy cost him reelection to Bill Clinton, who served two terms. Clinton’s lame duck period, mired in sexual scandal, saw him desperately trying to negotiate a Middle East peace treaty in an effort to redeem his reputation. These efforts ultimately failed.

In the twenty-first century, lame duck periods of George W. Bush and Barack Obama were uneventful. President Donald Trump agitated during his lame duck period about stolen elections and disorders occurred in Washington as he tried to claim the Electoral College vote was stolen. He left office with a mixed reputation. President Joe Biden, the current incumbent fully intended to run for re-election. He won all the Democrat primaries, yet opposition from the party’s elite forced him to withdraw from the race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden’s schedule has been minimal with few public events and the press reports that he is bitter and angry. He will be a lame duck until January 20, 2025 when a successor will take office. Currently, there are substantial domestic and international challenges facing the presidency and the US. Whether Biden, dealing with a split Congress can still exercise any leadership and authority remains to be seen.

The complexity of the presidency requires an interval between election and inauguration. Two months have been the interval since the Twentieth Amendment was passed. Time and events now move at warp speed. At the least, close cooperation and collaboration between the outgoing and incoming administrations are required. The world has become more dangerous in recent decades with the spread of nuclear weapons, the activity of non-state actors and economic stresses. The challenges have always been there though they may be greater now. Presidents will need to be alert, active, careful and most importantly, responsible in all of their actions. This applies to office holders at all periods of their tenure. There will no longer be lame duck periods or vacations.

Garry S. Sklar

Guttenberg, NJ

August 14, 2024