Thoughts About Middle East Peace: A Three State Solution (Part I)

One of the leading news stories of our times, virtually every day in major newspapers of the world, is the ongoing Arab-Israeli Conflict. Known by various names, Arab Israel, Israeli Palestinian, and less commonly Jewish—Muslim. This conflict has been going on for more than a century, preceding the founding of Israel in 1948. Intra-communal conflict between Muslim Arabs and Jews turned increasingly violent with major fighting and massacres occurring in 1929, and in 1936. The League of Nations had granted the United Kingdom a mandate over this territory as the former Ottoman Empire was dismantled.

After many years of frustration of dealing with this seemingly unresolvable inter communal violence and antipathy, the UK established the Peel Commission to search for a solution.The Commission, established in 1938, reported that there was little affinity between the two populations and that the best solution was partition of mandatory Palestine. It is not insignificant that the Palestine mandate was split into two unequal pieces in 1922 with the much larger portion being assigned to the Hashemite dynasty as a reward for its support of the British war efforts in the Middle East  against the Ottoman Empire. The Hashemite efforts were of questionable value but they lost control of the Hejaz to the al Saud family, leading to the creation by Ibn Saud of present day Saudi Arabia. The children of  Hashemite Emir Feisal were assigned monarchies in Iraq (Mesopotamia)  and the newly created Transjordan (today’s Jordan). The British issued in 1939 the notorious white paper which limited to a bare minimum Jewish immigration to Palestine at a time when it was needed more than ever as World War II started and the Nazi endlosung- the final solution came into high gear with the murder of six million Jews. Significantly, the Evian Conference of 1938, combined with the British White Paper closed the door tightly to escaping Jews.

With the end of World War II, the League of Nations mercifully went out of business and transferred its remaining assets to the newly constituted United Nations which established itself in New York City. The UN, had to solve the Arab-Jewish problem as the British essentially resigned as the Mandatory power. it was just as well from the British point of view as fighting from both sides intensified and British troops became the targets of both sides. The UN voted for partition of what remained of mandatory Palestine.The Arab nations, through the Arab League, rejected partition and attacked the Jewish community (yishuv). The war ended with the yishuv having significantly more territory than assigned by the partition plan. No peace treaty was ever signed though various armistice agreements and armistice lines, meant to be something less than final were established.

Turmoil in the Arab world made any efforts to achieve peace impossible. The Egyptian King, Farouk, was overthrown by the Colonel’s group of the Egyptian army, establishing a rule by military leaders that continues to this day. Mohammed Naguib was the first Egyptian President but he was quickly replaced by Gamal Abdel Nasser who served as President (Ras) until his death in 1970. Nasser was an Arab nationalist who dreamed of uniting the Arab Nation (umma) under his leadership. He utilized militant opposition to Israel to establish his bona fides with the Arab street. He nationalized the  Anglo French Suez Canal Company,, brought the USSR into the Middle East as he played the Soviet Union against the U.S. in obtaining financing for the Aswan High Dam, and obtained massive Soviet armaments, while supporting Fedayeen terrorist raids into Israel. The result of the Canal seizure and raids into Israel led to the infamous British-French-Israeli attack on Egypt. Nasser blocked the Suez Canal by sinking ships in its channel. The UN, under American leadership threatened severe financial sanction against the British and French, and the two European powers yielded to fears of economic disaster. Several more months of pressure led to the Israeli departure from the occupied Sinai peninsula, but not before creation of the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF) whose function would be to separate the two sides.  Significantly, the UNEF was positioned only on the Egyptian side of the border as Israel wold not permit them on its territory. Additionally, the Strait of Tiran was to be kept open to Israeli shipping to the southern port of Eilat.

Nasser emerged as the victor in this war and simultaneously became the darling of the Third World Non-Aligned Movement which he now led together with Nehru of India, Sukarno of Indonesia and Tito of Yugoslavia. After 1959, Fidel Castro, who identified himself as always a Communist, joined the leadership of this group as the movement became increasingly anti-Western in a pseudo-neutralist pose. With the decolonization of Africa and the expansion of the United Nations membership, the Soviet Communist  bloc, with the aid of the  non-aligned movement now became dominant. In the Arab world leftist movements and a de facto alliance with the Soviet bloc became the rule as American and Western influence in this part of the world weakened. American and European support of Israel further weakened Western standing in the Middle East. Nasser’s goal of being the leader of the Arab world was increasingly successful as Egypt merged with Syria into a new entity called the United Arab Republic (UAR).  Other Arab nations were invited to join and a revolt in Yemen overthrew the hereditary Imam. Subsequently a civil war developed in Yemen which was long and bloody. The UAR sided with the revolutionaries and Egyptian troops were sent there to fight with them as they also wanted to join the UAR. This long inconclusive war prevented membership in the UAR, despite active Egyptian involvement. Meanwhile, unresolvable problems occurred in the UAR.  The two halves of that new country were separated by Israel and the Mediterranean Sea. This geographical obstacle cannot be emphasized too much as fragmented states have generally been unsuccessful, schismatic  if not actually a caucus belli. Syrian political elites chafed under Egyptian domination and after several years of dealing with their Egyptian overlords they overthrew the UAR. Egypt and Syria now went their own ways, with the Baath (Renaissance) party now running Syria. Significantly, UN Secretary General Dag Hammarskjold died in a still mysterious airplane crash while on a peace-seeking mission in the Congo, (later Zaire). This led to a deadlock in the election of a new Secretary General. Finally, the U.S. and USSR agreed on a Burmese diplomat U Thant, who now became that organization’s third Secretary General.

During May 1967, the USSR provoked what would become the Six Day War by informing Syria about an alleged Israeli concentration of troops on their common border. This false information led to a build up of Egyptian troops along their border with Israel. However, before this happened, Nasser asked U Thant to withdraw the UNEF. It is doubtful that Nasser expected U Thant to comply with his request but he did, thus removing the buffer between the two sides which had existed for over ten years. Nasser also closed the Strait of Tiran which Israel had previously declared would be an act of war. Israeli reserves were called up, and a waiting game, which Israel could not afford to play, began. The called up reserves, if deployed for any length of time would lead to the destruction of the Israeli economy. Jordanian troops were put under Egyptian command as the noose tightened (Syrian troops also were in position for war). On the morning of June 5, the Israeli Air Force attacked the Egyptian Air Force and destroyed it on the ground, thereby achieving unchallenged air superiority, A famous open telephone call between Nasser and Jordan’s King Hussein led to Jordan’s entry into the War. Nasser told Hussein that  Egypt was winning and Jordan should enter as soon as possible to ensure its share of the spoils. The Old City of Jerusalem, in Jordanian hands since 1948 fell as did the entire West Bank of the Jordan River, territory which had been part of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Fighting in the north led to Israeli capture of the Golan Heights of Syria. Israeli troops reached the Suez Canal, occupied the entire Sinai Peninsula and were within reach of th Syrian capital,  Damascus.

At this point, one can question the utility and the actions of the United Nations during the Six Day War, The UN, at the request of the Arab belligerents and with the leadership of the USSR, demanded an immediate cease fire. The Israeli Army increased their offensive actions ignoring the UN demand in order to reach their strategic goals before any cease fire would take effect. It is obvious that U Thant’s sudden removal of the UNEF from the Egyptian-Israeli border led to the aggravation of the pre war situation and may have been decisive in causing the war to begin. Diplomatic efforts may have been successful in defusing the situation and war had the UNEF not been removed. This of course is hindsight but U Thant must be blamed for acting hastily. He tried to explain his actions with reference to Egyptian sovereignty but this explanation, considering the explosive situation which already existed with the closure of the Strait of Tiran is weak at best. The next action of the UN that was faulty was the call for a cease fire which may seem a prudent and humane act, but really is just the opposite. It prevented this war, or indeed any other war in any other part of the world from reaching its natural denouement. The failure to permit a war to end naturally allows a bellicose situation to fester unresolved, to be fought again another day with more blood  spilled and death to occur. This is exactly what happened and has led to the unfortunate situation which now exists in the Middle East. The work of Ivan Bloch definitively demonstrated that nations will make peace when they have suffered enough and the costs have been too high. Artificial cease fires are little more than “time outs” until the next battle. I may seem inhuman in the Twenty-first century to advocate such a position, but wars lasting seventy or more years is just as inhuman as it affects generations of people on both sides and leads to hardening  of attitudes and developing hatreds which may never be overcome. Peace will come when the belligerents have had enough and they are convinced the battle is over. That is why the unresolved First World War led to World War II. The Versailles treaty, as punitive, unequal and unfair as it was, did not convince Germany that they lost the War. The German surrender, after all, occurred while the fighting was still on in France.  How could they lose when they occupied Belgian and French territory. Marshal Foch understood this as he told Premier Clemenceau “They’ll be back in twenty years” and they were. The World War II Allied demand for unconditional surrender by both Germany and Japan led to the German surrender and four power occupation of that country. Two nuclear bombs convinced Japan that the price to continue was too high but only the intervention of Emperor Hirohito caused the Japanese government to surrender. It can be concluded in this sense that the UN is a major obstacle to peace in the world and that the UN does not act as an honest broker in international disputes., as its imprudent calls for cease fire leads to unresolved conflicts which ultimately recur. Haile Selassie’s warning to the League of Nations still resonates today.

The results of the Six Day War led to an Arab League Conference in Khartoum, Sudan at the end of August 1967. The conference’s final communiqué  ended with the famous three no’s of Khartoum: “No peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiation with Israel”. 

The Arab belligerents had previously blamed the United States for the Israeli victory, implying that American troops fought on behalf pf Israel. Most Arab nations broke diplomatic relations with the U.S., and most African nations, Muslim and non-Muslim which previously had diplomatic relations with Israel broke them as well. Egyptian President Nasser was determined to regain the occupied Sinai Peninsula and 1969-70 saw the ferocious yet inconclusive War of Attrition. It finally ended in 1970 and  President Nasser died suddenly of a heart attack in September 1970. He was succeeded by his vice president, a relatively unknown figure Anwar el -Sadat. He tried a new approach and on several occasions offered peace terms to Israel in return for an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Sinai which would lead to re-opening the blockaded Suez Canal. During this time the Jarring Mission and Rogers proposals led to no results as Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir was not receptive. Sadat ultimately ordered Soviet personnel out of Egypt and re-established relations with the United States. On October 6, 1973, which was Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish Calendar, Egypt and Syria suddenly attacked Israel. The Yom Kippur War, also called the War of Ramadan (9 Ramadan 1393 A.H.) started with surprise coordinated Egyptian and Syrian attacks against Israeli positions in the Sinai, against the Bar Lev Line along the Suez Canal, and the Golan Heights. The war lasted approximately three weeks and was brutal, bloody and costly. Again, interference from the Soviet Union at the UN,  and demands for a cease fire when the tide of battle turned from being favorable to the Arabs to being favorable to the Israelis led to a repeat of the Six Day War dilemma, namely that the UN and the USSR were an insurance policy and would prevent their favored side from losing. The Arab oil producing nations (OPEC) supported the Egyptians and Syrians, both of which had suffered severe territorial as well as manpower losses with an oil embargo which was primarily directed against the U.S. and its allies. Israeli forces were 60 miles (101 KM) from Cairo and about 35 miles from Damascus when the war ended.  The Israelis, though they seemed to be the winners, ultimately could not claim victory due to the Arab sides insurance policy, Additionally, the Israelis would never have the manpower needed to occupy Cairo or Damascus to convince their opponents that they had really lost. Controlled presses in Syria and Egypt convinced their citizens that they had performed nobly and defeated their Israeli enemy. This time, however, the price was too high and the Arab forces could no longer fight to the last Egyptian. Under the diplomatic aegis of U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger disengagement talks led to a full cease fire. Subsequent heroic visits by Sadat to Jerusalem and negotiations with Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin led to the signing of a peace treaty in Washington D.C. on  March 26,1979 witnessed by U.S. President Jimmy Carter. Jordan, which all agreed would be the second nation to make peace (but not the first) signed a peace treaty with Israel on October 26,1994 with President Bill Clinton witnessing the signing by Jordanian King Hussein and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Diplomatic relations have been established since the signing of these treaties and relations can be described at best as correct. They are not warm but they exist.

Not all diplomatic efforts have been fruitful. One of the less remembered is the agreement of May 17,1983 which would have been a peace treaty between Lebanon and Israel. This treaty collapsed before it became effective due to opposition of the Muslim majority in Lebanon and the remainder of the Arab world and the assassination of the Maronite leader, Bashir Gemayel.. Lebanon, a bi-national state with a Muslim majority and a Christian minority has not had a government stable enough to negotiate an international agreement, certainly one that a majority of its population opposes. In addition to having a large Palestinian population with revanchist dreams against Israel, its Muslim majority is segmented between Shia and Sunni adherents, the Shia faction supporting Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah is strongly allied to the Syrian dictatorship of Bashir al Assad and the minority Alawite population which dominates that country. Currently, the northern front of Israel is quiet but several wars have been fought between Israel and Hezbollah and the danger of a full scale war between the two cannot be dismissed. There is a known presence of Iranian military personnel in Syria and Lebanon and the situation there cannot be called promising for peace. 

In 1993 and 1995, Oslo I and Oslo II accords were agreed to between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization resulting in the creation of the Palestinian Authority, a form of limited self-government in parts of the West Bank and Gaza and mutual recognition. There was to be a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops from the occupied territories. Little was decided about the final status of Jerusalem, borders, settlements, the so called Palestinian right of return and the Israeli military presence. After a five year interim period little progress was made, and in 2000, a conference at Camp David was held with no results. The collapse of the Oslo accords led to the second intifada.

Despite the actions of a number of American Presidents, foreign leaders and UN efforts, except for cold peace with Egypt and Jordan, Israel still faces hostility from much of the Muslim world and the Arab street. It is noteworthy that little has changed after the Arab Spring, except for changes in leadership in Tunisia, Libya (which has joined the ranks of failed states) Egypt- which substituted one General for another, and an endless civil war in Syria with the intervention of Shiite Iran  and Russia on the side of the Assad dictatorship. Unwise American intervention in Iraq after the September 11,2001 attacks on the United States led to the downfall of dictator Saddam Hussein and seemingly perpetual instability in that country. Factions of Shia, Sunni and Kurds, who mutually despise each other leads one to think the best solution to Iraq would be to divide it into three countries. This was proposed at that time by Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr (D-Del) The Arab League has vigorously opposed such proposals and has insisted with success that Iraq remain one country. Iran, a non-Arab Shiite Muslim nation may have its own ideas about the future of Iraq and a Sunni Shiite War with a repeat of the Battle of Karbala cannot be ruled out in the future.

The Middle Eastern situation is complex, is becoming more so and simultaneously is becoming more dangerous. Some kind of modus vivendi  is called for but all efforts have led nowhere. Gaza, after a total Israeli withdrawal is a flashpoint of violence and is under control of Hamas, not the Palestinian Authority. Hamas tends to be Islamic while the P.A. is relatively secular, but that is only in the most general sense as religious Muslims may belong to both groups as secular Muslims may too. Numerous, almost weekly demonstrations occur at the Gaza border, many tunnels into Israel have been found and destroyed by Israel and Gaza itself is hermetically sealed by Israel and Egypt. Unemployment is high and hatred is higher. Regrettably, no solutions seems to be in sight. The West Bank much larger than Gaza has over 600,000 Israelis living there at this time. This number includes East Jerusalem which was captured from Jordan during the Six Day War. The population density of Gaza is 4,987/square km and that of the West Bank is 469/square km. This can be compared to some major cities, for example, Cairo- 19,376/square km, Paris 21,498/square km and Manila 43,079/square km. The literacy rate in the Palestinian territories is over 95%, and the population is young and rapidly growing.

The whole world seems to demand a “Two State Solution”. This includes a significant percentage of the Israeli population. It is the contention of this article that a two state solution  with a fragmented Palestinian nation itself is a causus belli. This is most clearly demonstrated by the direct cause of World War II, namely the existence of the Polish Corridor which separated East Prussia from the body of Germany. Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points which found their way into the ill fated Treaty of Versailles specified that the newly created Polish state had to have access to the Baltic Sea, hence the creation of the corridor and the establishment of Danzig (Gdansk) at the head of the corridor as a Free State dissociated form Germany despite its German population. After the Munich Conference Nazi Germany turned its attention to Poland and demanded Polish agreement to the construction of an extra-territorial highway across the corridor. Polish rejection of this demand led to World War II. Another example of a fragmented stated that led to War was post partition Pakistan After the division of India into Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan, the latter was created with two segments, one eastern, predominantly Bengali, and one western mainly, Punjabi, Baluchi and Sindhi. The two segments of Pakistan had little in common except religion, and after a brief bloody war, East Pakistan was reconstituted as an independent nation, Bangladesh. At this time, Europe has a fragmented exclave. The former German city of Koenigsberg, now known as Kaliningrad is now  part of Russia but is separated from Russia by Poland and Lithuania. This should be a source  of tension but the disparity in power between Russia and its neighbors is such that any expected tensions will probably not occur.

Dealing with the two separated segments of the putative Palestinian state cannot be solved by the establishment of a single state. The two segments must be restored to its pre Six Day War status if peace is to be maintained. While the Arab League has recognized the PLO as the sole spokesman for the Palestinian people in 1974, thus relieving King Hussein of his responsibilities to the West Bank, he finally renounced Jordanian control over that territory in 1988.  Jordan had annexed the West Bank, including East Jerusalem in 1948. That the future of this territory should be unilaterally decided by the Arab League and a self serving Jordanian declaration

is hardly an acceptable way to establish a long term peace. The West Bank residents are not stateless. They are Jordanian citizens and a Jordanian decree can hardly undo that. The West Bank problem can be solved by a settlement of the Six Day War and the return of the West Bank and its residents to Jordanian nationality and control. While Egypt never formally annexed the Gaza Strip, from 1948 to 1967 there was essentially no border between the two areas. The population of Gaza is 100% Muslim. It cannot be connected to the West Bank and Jordan, nor to Israel. It must be returned, and accepted by Egypt. Jordan and Egypt were parties to the Six Day War which has led to an over 50 year nightmare including Gaza and the West Bank. Whether they are in accord or not, sacrifices are called for and Egypt and Jordan must do their share to establish a long lasting peaceful environment.

Mention should be made here of the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) which called for an exchange of populations between Greece and Turkey.  Great enmity and war existed between Orthodox Greece and Muslim Turkey. The treaty called for an exchange of population based on religion, not language or nationality. It is significant, for example, that Kemal Ataturk was born in Thessaloniki, Greece and Aristotle Onassis was born in Karatas, Turkey. Millions of Muslims left Greece and an equal  number of Christians left Turkey. Today, Turkey is nearly 100% Muslim and Greece is nearly 100% Christian. The Peel Commission reported that  Muslims and Jews have little affinity for each other, have little in common and should not have to live with each other. The Peel Commission got it right. Partition was the answer. However, history cannot be erased. What has happened is not theoretical but rather is factual. There is a large Israeli presence in the West Bank and a large Arab present in Israel. There can be an exchange of populations with the Israeli Arab citizens moving to Jordan and the Israelis in the West Bank returning to Israel. Alternatively, they may remain where they are and the Israelis in the West Bank can become Jordanian citizens. Jordan can hardly in this era object to citizens of another faith.

The problem of Jerusalem remains. If the West Bank returns to Jordan and Gaza to Egypt., Jerusalem should not be a problem. Despite Jordanian withdrawal from its responsibilities to its citizens who lived in the West Bank, they always insisted that they remained guardians of the Muslim and Christian holy places in Jerusalem. This can continue. Israel has committed itself to access to holy places to people of all religions and nationalities. Solving this final issue should reinforce access to all in Jerusalem.

A two state solution is no solution at all. The Palestinians were not a party to the Six Day War and the War was not fought for their benefit. They have no claim to the territory since they were quite satisfied to be Jordanian citizens and were always Jordanian. Jordan had no legal right to revoke their citizenship as a result of a war that the Jordanian government foolishly stumbled into. There is no right of return for anyone. Not for Arabs, not for Europeans displaced by changing borders, not for anyone. This three state solution may be the best hope for all parties involved. Metternich declared that there can be no peace with revolutionary movements. Hezbollah, Hamas, the PLO and Iran all represent revolutionary movements. The only way to eliminate their threat to peace is to forget any two state solution which itself is a causes belli and return the Arab population and the West Bank to Jordan and  Gaza to Egypt.  The revolutionary terrorist groups will then disappear as they will no longer have a mission. Iran will still be a problem but the major irritants to peace in the Middle East will have been cured.

Subsequent events and further discussion will be in another article on this subject to be posted shortly. 

Garry S. Sklar

Las Vegas, NV

May 20-23,2019

October 7, 2020