Hudna=Sitzkrieg 2026

This evening's news showed President Trump declaring to a news reporter's question that the war with Iran has been won and that American objectives have been met. American objectives were to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. This, according to the President, has been accomplished. Meanwhile, all US B-1B Lancer bombers were hastily flown to the US from RAF Fairford base in England where they had been stationed. The stated reason was normal reallocation of the bombers but it happened following the arrest of a suspected group of terrorists planning an attack on the base. Simultaneously, passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains very challenging and a barrel of Brent crude topped $102 today. So, what's going on?

Victory implies the victor has imposed its will upon the vanquished. At this moment, it does not appear that that has happened. The American blockade of Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is preventing Iran from exporting its oil and the Iranian rial (IRR) today was quoted at 1,374,600 to one US dollar. A year ago the quote was "only" 42,075 to one, an incease in one year of over 3200%. Sanctions have hit Iran very severely and its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 is down 6.1% according to the International Monetary Fund. This indicates severe distress for the Iranian economy and the Iranian people. It must be understood that use of the economic weapon, sanctions and blockade, hurts ordinary Iranians more than the ruling elite and its military,which under the circumstances remains in control of Iran. The Iranian people have not revolted nor have the military and security apparatus sought to overthrow the government; whether the president and his associates remain in charge or power has devolved to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its leadership remains questionable. Recent increased activity by the Houthis, Iran's proxy in Yemen and its actions at the Strait of Tiran and in Saudi Arabia indicate that Iran is far from submitting to American will

This situation is reminiscent of the so called phony war of Oct. 1939 to May 1940 on the western front of Europe during World War II. Called by different names, the "phony war" , "drole de guerre"

and "sitzkrieg", there was no action on that front, despite France and Great Britain declaring war on Nazi Germany in response to its attack on Poland, which launched World War II. With the German army occupied on the eastern front, had the British and French attacked Germany in the west, the history of the world might have been very different. Instead, Germany, after consolidating its eastern front victory, attacked France through the Ardennes forest and quickly overran the third French Republic, prolonging the war by five years.

The Hudna, or cease fire, pleases American and Europeans who misunderstand it, but is being used strategically by the Islamic Republic to strengthen its forces and plan actions against the United States and its so called allies. It must be understoood that sanctions, which cause immense suffering by the target population, generally does not cause political instability or revolution, but rather unites the citizenry with its leadership. So President Trump's declaration of victory is very premature.

What must be done? The American leadership must re-evaluate its goals. Multi-billions of dollars have been expended and deaths and injuries of American personnel have occurred. Previous posts in this blog have suggested that the US and the Islamic Republic cannot coexist. Whether other nations will intervene in support of the US is doubtful. Whether Europe will recognize that a clash of civilizations is occurring remains an open question, and may occur too late. There is a major dilemma at present. It appears that a land invasion of Iran may be necessary and lead to World War III as Iran's allies, China, Russia and North Korea, the axis of evil, may intervene directly or embark on adventures in other theatres.The UN has proven utterly worthless.

President Trump failed to prepare the American people and our so called allies for this war.

The model for this type of war and its preparation is that of President George H.W. Bush and the first Gulf War. Lack of such preparation and planning has led us to the situation we face today. Dark days are ahead.

Garry S. Sklar

Las Vegas, NV

October 7, 2026